Introduction

Note: This introduction below reflects thoughts from 2 years ago (early August 2018 to be more precise).   Time to start actively publishing and putting down my thoughts now.

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I thought about writing this blog a few months  years ago, after thinking back to some speculative hypotheses I made a few years ago.  Back in late 2013, I was in France talking to a well-educated Indo-American (think Bobby Jindal or Nikki Haley) and I mentioned that I could see the British leaving the E.U. and that a civil war in the U.S. was a distant possibility.  Nidhi - an Ivy League-educated lawyer - opined that the British were too open to ideas and weren't insular.  Less than 3 5 years on, I was definitely and absolutely proven right.  On the second point, she didn't see that as possible.

While I hope I am proven wrong about my second American civil war hypothesis, I think the possibility has grown immensely.

Back in 2013, I thought a civil war would result in something minor spinning out of control, such as the Cliven Bundy incident and how the federal government would react to it.  It'd start out small but will spin out of control as various factions - the federal government, NRA, conservatives, etc. start throwing in their influence.

Far from my mind at the time was political polarisation in the U.S. Congress, and further from my mind Donald Trump.

Fast forward to early 2017.  I speculated how the Trump term of office will end

Martial law

coup d’etat

civil war

impeachment

or just simple chaos for the next ~ 4 years

Currently, it seems to be chaos.  Or what appears to be chaos hiding fundamental changes.
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I stopped a this point, unsure of and daunted by how to approach a very complicated and multi-faceted topic.  Forecasting the future is difficult.  Who knew in late 1930s what the outcome would be in 1940 let alone 1945?  Major outcomes could occur due to a single event.  One can only write about possible scenarios, what their causes and effects are, and perhaps the probability.

I have decided just to write short essays which may or may not be edited for updates.