Veterans and the Militia

 A FBI report, reportedly suppressed, made the case that the greatest threat to the U.S. is not from abroad, violent Islamic activists in particular, but right0wing extremists.   With legal, ready and open access to a wealth of firearms, these groups and individuals sympathetic to them have had a lot of time arm themselves and have been making their presence known in Charlottesville, Virginia, Portland, Oregon, the armed "Liberate" invasion - for want of a better word - of state legislatures to protest pandemic lockdowns.

Some see them as a harmless threat that could be swept away quickly by the authorities.  I am not too sure this will happen.   One clear demonstration of this was the recent shooting of protesters by one of these extremists, who was allowed to walk, fully armed, through armed police ranks.  It is highly-likely that these militia will be adjunct forces for imposition of "law & order".   

The other factor is veterans of which the U.S. has a huge number of.  The term veteran does not necessarily mean older soldiers who have done their 20 years or more of service and have retired with a pension, but anyone who has enlisted in the military and has been discharged.  It is said that right-wine extremists have recommended their sympathizers join the military for training, and perhaps access to weapons.  An unknown number of these extremists could be active in armed militia groups and provide training.

The Military: A Possible War Within

 In failing countries, the military often will step in via a coup to take control.  Most of the times, it is the top officer class, the generals.  Sometimes it will be high-ranking officers such as the colonels in Greece.(which precipitated the Cyprus crisis that ultimately ended the regime).  Sometimes it can be junior officers, and sometimes it can be the NCOs (non-commissioned officers, the enlisted men).

What could happen in the U.S. is interesting.  Recent public opinions and implorationsof a large number of top-ranking generals appear to indicate that they respect the U.S. Constitution (who all military make an oath of allegiance to rather than to any individual such as the President) and implore all ranks to do the same.   No one has asked the opinion of the senior non-general officers or junior officers, or NCOs.

Is it entirely possible that different ranks will take different action if called to defend the constitution, or to partake in a coup or acts of repression.  The consequences of such will be interesting.

Trump Card

 The death of U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Gnsburg has the distinct potential to tip a contested election in favour of the current president.  The Republican majority in the Senate will waste no time confirming a replacement of their liking.

Any contested election will most likely result in legal action that will be heard by the USSC where it would be a safe assumption which side's argument the majority of justices may favour. 

Even if the Democrats were to win the Presidency and both chambers of Congress, Republican appointees in the Supreme and Federal courts have the potential to stymie and overturn any legislative initiatives.   There is some talk of the top-level judiciary being expanded with a rotating or random roster of justices which would make things interesting, especially if the other side wins again.

A Complicated Subject

 Many years ago, I studied forestry.  One of the core courses was titled simply 'forest ecology'.  It was a course that seem to trip up a good many students who had to pass it to get their degree and some took it at least 2 or 3 times.  One of the difficulties for some was apparently tying in all the various parts earth, wind, water, plants, wildlife, air and more that make up the ecosystem in the various exams.  

Writing this blog reminds me of that time nearly 40 years ago.  Tying in the various factors to make sense of what may happen and make predictions is hugely time-consuming and takes more brain power and time than I care to give it. The difference now is that this writing is inconsequential and my earning of a degree does not depend on it.

A Long Break

 I was going to write more but when COVID hit the world, I battened down and did nothing other than watch world events.

What has happened in the intervening 6-8 months had led me to believe that some sort of unrest will occur in the U.S.  What happens has changed but the probability is very high.

Events such as the election, voter suppression, right-wing militias, police actions (or inactions), all are being discussed on various U.S. news channels that previously (3 or so years ago) would have stated that the possibility of civil strife were impossible not talk about wars, the military being involved, and insurrections.   I hope to address these topics in the upcoming weeks.