A new article that proposes asking the Democratic presidential nominee candidates what they would do in such a case. The author asks if the candidates hold political tradition and custom too close and adhere to American Exceptionalism so much that they have not addressed the a hypothetical situation if Trump loses but will not concede and leave office. The possibility that the Trump may resort to violence and terror is he is removed.
https://www.salon.com/2020/02/26/democrats-arent-facing-the-big-question-what-will-they-do-if-trump-wont-leave-office/
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
The Sanders Candidacy Three Pathways to Dictatorship
No, I don't think Bernie Sanders would ever think of a dictatorship with him or his movement being at the helm of it. I take it at his self-described word that he is a democratic socialist and will perform his constitutional duties faithfully. Where I see the path to dictatorship with him as a catalyst comes in at least two ways:
Currently, we have Sen Sanders seemingly having the lead and momentum after caucii and a primary in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. As I write, the South Carolina primary will be held late in week with "Super Tuesday" - 14 states having primary selections - a week later.
Assuming Sen. Sanders wins a large number of delegates (a quarter of that required to win) to the Democratic convention, his momentum to winning the presidential nomination may be unstoppable.
However, he may not win enough to win on the first round of voting. In that case, a brokered convention where delegates are horse traded with the 700 or so super delegates (Democratic party grandees) are released to vote in the second round, may be required for a presidential nominee to win. Nominees from a brokered convention, usually divisive, have had a very poor record in the actual election.
The Rachel Bitcofer theory that modern U.S. elections are worn on voter turn out, and not winning over independent voters, could come strongly into play. In 2016 after Hilary Clinton won the nomination in a contest with Sen. Sanders with votes of super delegates a large number of Sanders supporters reportedly either stayed home, ended up voting from Trump (they perceived he would stand up for the little person) or voted for minor candidates (e.g.,, Green Party). If Sen. Sanders does win the largest number of delegates, but not enough to secure the nomination on the 1st round of voting, the establishment Democrats may broker a candidate that they deem more mainstream and electable, and a representative for their corporate interest. I would expect that the Bitcofer turnout theory will strongly present and the Democrats will lose the election through lower turnout.
In the even Sanders does win the nomination, I can envision some supporters of establishment Democrats, particularly the very wealthy, throwing their support to Trump to protect their interest. This would be a close parallel to the industrialist of Weimar Germany supporting Hitler as a pro-business leader. A resulting narrow victory could result in a disputed election which may end up with Trump seizing power with the support of the Senate Republicans.
Even if Sen. Sanders were to win the election, it is not inconceivable that an overt coup, let by industrialists and Trumpist Republicans to protect their interests may happen.
Currently, we have Sen Sanders seemingly having the lead and momentum after caucii and a primary in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. As I write, the South Carolina primary will be held late in week with "Super Tuesday" - 14 states having primary selections - a week later.
Assuming Sen. Sanders wins a large number of delegates (a quarter of that required to win) to the Democratic convention, his momentum to winning the presidential nomination may be unstoppable.
However, he may not win enough to win on the first round of voting. In that case, a brokered convention where delegates are horse traded with the 700 or so super delegates (Democratic party grandees) are released to vote in the second round, may be required for a presidential nominee to win. Nominees from a brokered convention, usually divisive, have had a very poor record in the actual election.
The Rachel Bitcofer theory that modern U.S. elections are worn on voter turn out, and not winning over independent voters, could come strongly into play. In 2016 after Hilary Clinton won the nomination in a contest with Sen. Sanders with votes of super delegates a large number of Sanders supporters reportedly either stayed home, ended up voting from Trump (they perceived he would stand up for the little person) or voted for minor candidates (e.g.,, Green Party). If Sen. Sanders does win the largest number of delegates, but not enough to secure the nomination on the 1st round of voting, the establishment Democrats may broker a candidate that they deem more mainstream and electable, and a representative for their corporate interest. I would expect that the Bitcofer turnout theory will strongly present and the Democrats will lose the election through lower turnout.
In the even Sanders does win the nomination, I can envision some supporters of establishment Democrats, particularly the very wealthy, throwing their support to Trump to protect their interest. This would be a close parallel to the industrialist of Weimar Germany supporting Hitler as a pro-business leader. A resulting narrow victory could result in a disputed election which may end up with Trump seizing power with the support of the Senate Republicans.
Even if Sen. Sanders were to win the election, it is not inconceivable that an overt coup, let by industrialists and Trumpist Republicans to protect their interests may happen.
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Maybe more hyperbole, or maybe not
Weekly column from Lucian Truscott. Sounds like hyperbole but factually correct.
https://www.salon.com/2020/02/22/this-isnt-an-election-its-a-civil-war-and-our-side-isnt-necessarily-winning/
https://www.salon.com/2020/02/22/this-isnt-an-election-its-a-civil-war-and-our-side-isnt-necessarily-winning/
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Trumpism - A Reaction to Civil Rights?
An interview with an author who puts forth a case that Trumpism's support comes from the enactment of civil rights legislation in the U.S. and its subsequent expansion. A rift that cannot be bridged is what ifs of essence. An ingredient for civil war, or at least partition.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/19/21116713/civil-rights-christopher-caldwell-age-of-entitlement
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/19/21116713/civil-rights-christopher-caldwell-age-of-entitlement
More comparisons to Germany of the 1920s
Another comparison to the current state of western liberal democracy, not just int he U.S. but eastern and western Europe too. The illiberal and would-be authoritarians are not saying, "democracy is weak, let's be more careful" but "democracy is weak, let's finish it off".
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/19/warnings-weimar-germany-prophecies
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/19/warnings-weimar-germany-prophecies
Sunday, February 16, 2020
1920s Germany Again
The political thinking by the business elite in the U.S. today should be compared to the same in Germany of the 1920s, as I have previously noted that Richard J. Evans covered so well in his book, 'The Coming of the Third Reich'.. Fear again, is of someone on the left of the political spectrum and the repercussions it cold have on the economy. Not much thought is put into the repercussions for choosing the opponent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/bernie-sanders-economy-policies-fact-check-lloyd-blankfein-goldman-sachs-democrats-a9336721.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/bernie-sanders-economy-policies-fact-check-lloyd-blankfein-goldman-sachs-democrats-a9336721.html
Saturday, February 15, 2020
Road to Dictatorship (again)
Another opinion piece placing the U.S. as being on the road to a dictatorship. I don't think the author is too confident the populace will resist enough to matter.
https://www.salon.com/2020/02/15/can-we-stop-tiptoeing-around-the-fact-that-trump-is-behaving-like-a-dictator/
Though a bit hyperbolical, the author is around Trump's age. His name is interesting as he is named after namesake father, grandfather and great-grandfather. The second one was a highly-decorated U.S. Army officer and the fourth did the family thing of going to and graduating from the U.S.M.A. a.k.a. West Point. before starting a career in journalism.
https://www.salon.com/2020/02/15/can-we-stop-tiptoeing-around-the-fact-that-trump-is-behaving-like-a-dictator/
Though a bit hyperbolical, the author is around Trump's age. His name is interesting as he is named after namesake father, grandfather and great-grandfather. The second one was a highly-decorated U.S. Army officer and the fourth did the family thing of going to and graduating from the U.S.M.A. a.k.a. West Point. before starting a career in journalism.
How Fascism Arrives in the U.S.?
A piece from the north of how fascism U.S. style is coming.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-is-this-how-fascism-comes-to-america/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-is-this-how-fascism-comes-to-america/
Thursday, February 13, 2020
An Intractable Constitutional Problem
Here's something that could well lead to secession by the larger states.
Basically the small states hold much more leverage in the Senate and the Electoral College. My feeling is that if Point 1 in the article continues to be an inbalance between votes cast and electoral results, there will be inevitable desire to secede.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump
Basically the small states hold much more leverage in the Senate and the Electoral College. My feeling is that if Point 1 in the article continues to be an inbalance between votes cast and electoral results, there will be inevitable desire to secede.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
The New Josef Goebbels? Disinformation 2020
This piece popped up
that references to another
The basic premise is that an individual has been hired by the 2020 campaign to run a $1 billion microtargeting disinformation campaign on social media. That is, reportedly thousands of data points have been gathered on all voters and they will be bombarded with very specific, tailored ads to either vote for the preferred candidate, or at least not vote for the opposition. Outright lies and falsehoods will be so numerous that factual news will be drowned out.
All this is making sense as a major and pre-eminent social media tech company has said it will not ban false political advertising. Perhaps it has something to do with opposition candidates indicating they will curtail the power and size of big social media. In my post about the German politics in the early 20th century, this is akin to industrialist combatting socialists by abetting Hitler.
Returning to the title. the individual may not be the new Goebbels (historical note: Adolf Hitler's Minister of Propaganda) but he will certainly be helped along the way. I always thought the new Goebbels was someone else (or many other persons) but tey have fallen by the wayside. Perhaps the new Goebbels will comprise of many.
To fight falsehoods on social media, please use FB Purity on all your devices
Monday, February 10, 2020
Will Western Countries Be Shown to Be Hypocrites? (Venezuela)
Many Western countries are backing the opposition presidential candidate Juan Guaido in a contested presidential election against incumbent Nicolas Maduro, calling for Maduro to cede the election. Maduro is of course the bogeyman while Guaido is the west's preferred candidate.
It will be interesting to see, in the event of a de facto coup in the U.S. what these oices are going to say, or will they suddenty be mute if not defering?
It will be interesting to see, in the event of a de facto coup in the U.S. what these oices are going to say, or will they suddenty be mute if not defering?
Recommended Reading for the Current Stage
A decade ago, I came across a book (or rather, a trilogy of) by Richard J. Evans, a British historian who focuses on late German history. The most apt book to read of the trilogy for now is the first, "The Coming of the Third Reich". In this book, Evans describes the social, economic and political conditions that resulted in the Nazis under Adolf Hitler gaining power in Germany.
It was in the late George W. Bush era at the time I read the book, and I was stricken by similarities that occurred in Germany in the period starting from even before the First World War to the early 1930s. At that time, I could also see similarities to the pre-Nazi era in other countries that were ruled by right-wing governments.
I actually discussed this with my one friend who holds history at heart (even more so given his extensive reading of esoteric history) and he confirmed my feelings that governments were using and exploiting social angst much like the Nazis did, though we both tend to be somewhat ridiculed for expressing these thoughts.
More frighteningly and alarmingly since then, similarities are much stronger with the current U.S. president. It would be good for people to read this book and understand what could very well occur.
https://www.richardjevans.com/publications-category/books-in-print/
It was in the late George W. Bush era at the time I read the book, and I was stricken by similarities that occurred in Germany in the period starting from even before the First World War to the early 1930s. At that time, I could also see similarities to the pre-Nazi era in other countries that were ruled by right-wing governments.
I actually discussed this with my one friend who holds history at heart (even more so given his extensive reading of esoteric history) and he confirmed my feelings that governments were using and exploiting social angst much like the Nazis did, though we both tend to be somewhat ridiculed for expressing these thoughts.
More frighteningly and alarmingly since then, similarities are much stronger with the current U.S. president. It would be good for people to read this book and understand what could very well occur.
https://www.richardjevans.com/publications-category/books-in-print/
Saturday, February 8, 2020
If not Civil War, A Peaceful Secession?
There is always the scenario of a peaceful secession of states and regions. My thinking is that such a secession may come from another 2 or more presidential elections where a significant majority of votes are cast for a Democratic candidate while Trump or a successor wins a majority of Electoral College votes. It is also not unlikely that, given the partisan nature of the electorate, the GOP will continue to hold a majority in the Senate while Democrats hold a majority in the House of Representatives.
Coupled with the likelihood that the federal judiciary will continue to be staffed with partisan appointees, a majority of the electorate in Democrat leaning states will find that continuous stream of federal judicial rulings against policies and laws that they would have had an excellent chance of winning with a more-neutral judiciary has reached an intolerable point. States may start a process of secession by issuing ultimatums after winning super majorities in state elections, How actual secession takes place, whether it will be a group of states forming a new nation, or something more fragmented, and whether and how the regime may become more apparent if the preceding events occur.
There may be counter-secessionists within states, such as the eastern regions of Washington and Oregon deciding that it wants to remain with the regime which could spark local conflict (which can easily spin out of control and spread).
The 2020 electoral map in the link below will provide an idea of the likely fault lines.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/07/election-2020-new-electoral-map-110496
Coupled with the likelihood that the federal judiciary will continue to be staffed with partisan appointees, a majority of the electorate in Democrat leaning states will find that continuous stream of federal judicial rulings against policies and laws that they would have had an excellent chance of winning with a more-neutral judiciary has reached an intolerable point. States may start a process of secession by issuing ultimatums after winning super majorities in state elections, How actual secession takes place, whether it will be a group of states forming a new nation, or something more fragmented, and whether and how the regime may become more apparent if the preceding events occur.
There may be counter-secessionists within states, such as the eastern regions of Washington and Oregon deciding that it wants to remain with the regime which could spark local conflict (which can easily spin out of control and spread).
The 2020 electoral map in the link below will provide an idea of the likely fault lines.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/07/election-2020-new-electoral-map-110496
Politics as a Team - or Tribal - Sport
Over the past couple of years my read is that there may not be any political opinions held by a great number of voters in the U.S. and thus nothing in one parry's platform is going to change how these voters will cast their ballot. Who they vote is like supporting a (pro) sports team: You support for your team and not any other (and since there are only two). Also, you may not necessarily like your team bu you loathe the opposition even more.
Polarity is the result with no place for the common good, or the best ideas that appeals to the individual. The link below opined the same, and in more detail and eloquently.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/negative-partisanship-explains-everything-215534
It might have only been a game about the 1st civil war (that never played) but A House Divided brings to mind Linoln's maxim that a house divided against itself cannot stand.
Polarity is the result with no place for the common good, or the best ideas that appeals to the individual. The link below opined the same, and in more detail and eloquently.
“Over the past few decades, American politics has become like a bitter sports rivalry, in which the parties hang together mainly out of sheer hatred of the other team, rather than a shared sense of purpose. Republicans might not love the president, but they absolutely loathe his Democratic adversaries.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/negative-partisanship-explains-everything-215534
It might have only been a game about the 1st civil war (that never played) but A House Divided brings to mind Linoln's maxim that a house divided against itself cannot stand.
Getting elected in a virtual dictatorship
It's not a new finding, or secret knowledge of any sort, but one party and its supporters feel that there is a visibly-evident demographic shift against them.
One political analyst even puts the theory forward (link below) that there is no body of voters that shifts its weight from one candidate to another, but that the population knows who they are going to vote for. The difference is respective voter turn out on both sides.
One political analyst even puts the theory forward (link below) that there is no body of voters that shifts its weight from one candidate to another, but that the population knows who they are going to vote for. The difference is respective voter turn out on both sides.
This makes perfect sense why voter suppression and disenfranchisement is so actively pursued by one party over another. It makes winning feasible against a demographic shift.
Friday, February 7, 2020
Obama's Great Disservice?
Updated 11 February 2020
As much as he is still admired around the world by those who believe in liberal democrats, I think the one great disservice that Barack Obama did was incessantly pushing (or harping about) "American Exceptionalism". It certainly continued fed the ego of the nation and populace into believing, or deluding themselves, that they are some perfect and invincible populace that they may not be. Perhaps no one looks in the mirror but the warts and all are all probably seen perfectly clearly by outsiders.
This arrogance may come at a price if the old adage, "pride comes before a fall" proves true. Blinded by this myth, Americans are so proud and sure of themselves that they think that what has happened to others cannot possibly happen to them.
As much as he is still admired around the world by those who believe in liberal democrats, I think the one great disservice that Barack Obama did was incessantly pushing (or harping about) "American Exceptionalism". It certainly continued fed the ego of the nation and populace into believing, or deluding themselves, that they are some perfect and invincible populace that they may not be. Perhaps no one looks in the mirror but the warts and all are all probably seen perfectly clearly by outsiders.
This arrogance may come at a price if the old adage, "pride comes before a fall" proves true. Blinded by this myth, Americans are so proud and sure of themselves that they think that what has happened to others cannot possibly happen to them.
Trump Now, Trump Tomorrow, Trump Forever?
George Wallace has been coming to mind. The piece below thinks that's entirely possible is Trump wins this year.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-first-a-strongman-now-a-king-donald-trump-has-become-americas/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-first-a-strongman-now-a-king-donald-trump-has-become-americas/
Life imitating computer games
Some friends of mine and I (as well as probably tens of thousands of other people) like to play this computer game of which one of the latest versions is called Civilization . One starts in early pre-history (around the time of the great pyramids) and builds a ciilization that hopefully will come to dominate and not be subsumed by others. In the later stages of the game at the dawn of industrialisation a civilization can started adopting ideologies. Of the three to choose from, the U.S. has obviously chosen freedom. The others are order and autocracy.
Choosing an ideology doesn't mean one can stay with it. Depending on various factors one could be forced to adopt another more popular ideology. It would appear that the U.S. is on course to changing ideology from freedom to autocracy. Part of the impetus (in the game) for change is unhappiness of which a high level can result in armed rebels appearing and cities to separate and join another civilization, as well as hum-drum economical and other effects.
Of course it is not a sophisticated simulation but I wonder what's driving ideological change.
https://store.steampowered.com/app/8930/Sid_Meiers_Civilization_V/
Choosing an ideology doesn't mean one can stay with it. Depending on various factors one could be forced to adopt another more popular ideology. It would appear that the U.S. is on course to changing ideology from freedom to autocracy. Part of the impetus (in the game) for change is unhappiness of which a high level can result in armed rebels appearing and cities to separate and join another civilization, as well as hum-drum economical and other effects.
Of course it is not a sophisticated simulation but I wonder what's driving ideological change.
https://store.steampowered.com/app/8930/Sid_Meiers_Civilization_V/
Thursday, February 6, 2020
In Event of a Contested Election?
An opinion from a U.S. professor o law and juriprudence about whether Trump will respect a narrow, or any, defeat.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/05/trump-impeachment-acquittal-2020-election
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/05/trump-impeachment-acquittal-2020-election
Mitt Romney takes a stand
Mitt Romney mentioned as the one Republican senator willing to take a stand. Lots of "ifs" about constitutional democracy surviving.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-06/mitt-romney-s-impeachment-vote-should-be-remembered
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-06/mitt-romney-s-impeachment-vote-should-be-remembered
If Civil War is Avoided - Dictatorship, not so much?
This came out. The author can see a likely, peaceful outcome to the election, and infers the establishment of a dictatorship?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-acquitted-by-the-senate-high-in-the-polls-his-foes-in-disarray-this/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-acquitted-by-the-senate-high-in-the-polls-his-foes-in-disarray-this/
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
What are the consequences for Canada?
Updated 9 February 2020
A two part series. I will write one for the other neighboring country Mexico.
A civil war in the U.S. is highly undesirable for Canada in the short term as it will likely cause an immediate and deep recession due to dominant economic ties. A long-term benefit is that it will finally make businesses and government realise that a diversity in customers is highly desirable not to mention the main competitor in turmoil.
Another long term benefit is the demise of the free trade agreement, and the possibility that whatever results from a break up will be equitable trade with smaller remnants of the U.S. as the entities will be smaller and less able to impose less favorable terms.
Refugees
A messy violent war is likely to result in a wave of refugees. Most will likely stay within what it currently the U.S. - moving to areas that are friendly to them. A certain number could find that the easiest refuge are neighboring countries, who could end up swamped and not able to deal with migrants that could easily outnumber.their current populations such as the case of Canada which population is around 1/10th of the U.S.
.
Canada's ability to absorb larger numbers will be severely tested. The country's immigration policy which has been a gross intake of approximately 1% of the existing population annually for many years has resulted in some resources, capacity and plans already in place to absorb even more newcomers.
In addition, a good number of refugees could well be nominal Canadians who have settled in the U.S. for decades (it was said decades ago, 1/2 million if not more) and have children and even grandchildren who are Canadian citizens or are a least eligible for citizenship. There will be some familial connections and the assistance rendered will make absorption easier.
Housing
With a reported pre-existing housing shortage, and an inhospitable winter climate, what will make it difficult and challenging is physically housing large numbers, let alone the financial cost, at least in the short term. If financers can be found, an immediate housing boom in residential construction is likely. Longer term, there will be benefits as it could be a huge increase in human capital.
Health Care Costs
In the very long term, continued turmoil and breakdown of the U.S. economy may make one costly item of governmental budgets, health care, cheaper. As a medical education in Canada is fully transferable to the U.S. (and other English-speaking countries) and as such, Canada has to pay medical staff quite a substantial amount to be competitive and keep medical staff from leaving. An economy in turmoil and unable to pay medical fees may well drive down medical costs.
Other professional wage rates , especially for those who can freely work, may also decline.
All too close for me.
A two part series. I will write one for the other neighboring country Mexico.
A civil war in the U.S. is highly undesirable for Canada in the short term as it will likely cause an immediate and deep recession due to dominant economic ties. A long-term benefit is that it will finally make businesses and government realise that a diversity in customers is highly desirable not to mention the main competitor in turmoil.
Another long term benefit is the demise of the free trade agreement, and the possibility that whatever results from a break up will be equitable trade with smaller remnants of the U.S. as the entities will be smaller and less able to impose less favorable terms.
Refugees
A messy violent war is likely to result in a wave of refugees. Most will likely stay within what it currently the U.S. - moving to areas that are friendly to them. A certain number could find that the easiest refuge are neighboring countries, who could end up swamped and not able to deal with migrants that could easily outnumber.their current populations such as the case of Canada which population is around 1/10th of the U.S.
.
Canada's ability to absorb larger numbers will be severely tested. The country's immigration policy which has been a gross intake of approximately 1% of the existing population annually for many years has resulted in some resources, capacity and plans already in place to absorb even more newcomers.
In addition, a good number of refugees could well be nominal Canadians who have settled in the U.S. for decades (it was said decades ago, 1/2 million if not more) and have children and even grandchildren who are Canadian citizens or are a least eligible for citizenship. There will be some familial connections and the assistance rendered will make absorption easier.
Housing
With a reported pre-existing housing shortage, and an inhospitable winter climate, what will make it difficult and challenging is physically housing large numbers, let alone the financial cost, at least in the short term. If financers can be found, an immediate housing boom in residential construction is likely. Longer term, there will be benefits as it could be a huge increase in human capital.
Health Care Costs
In the very long term, continued turmoil and breakdown of the U.S. economy may make one costly item of governmental budgets, health care, cheaper. As a medical education in Canada is fully transferable to the U.S. (and other English-speaking countries) and as such, Canada has to pay medical staff quite a substantial amount to be competitive and keep medical staff from leaving. An economy in turmoil and unable to pay medical fees may well drive down medical costs.
Other professional wage rates , especially for those who can freely work, may also decline.
All too close for me.
Secession
If the U.S. does fall apart as a result of a disputed election, secession of some states and regions within states is a possibility.
The only state I see seceding mostly as a whole is Hawaii. Regime military presence may make short shrift of this attempt though it is far away from the mainland.
The other possible seceders will be the large cities and perhaps regions on the west coast, though entire states is unlikely. The best I can see is Oregon and Washington west of the Cascades seceding and at least the southern half of California.
The rest of the country, going east, is likely to stay regimist though there may be pockets of resistant (easily quashed) in large cities and perhaps some states (Utah).
It will not be until the eastern seaboard that secession will pick up again, this time from Virginia north to New England. It'll likely be big cities toward the south and whole states towards the north and New England.
The question next is, independence or who to join? There certainly won't be powerful friends to rely on for protection, and might will have to be whatever military assets and loyal military personnel remain. Many regions and states are certainly large enough to exist as independent economic entities, but perhaps not without might against an angry regime. Canada is nearby (too near) and culturally and linguistically similar but too small. Too small in population to absorb potential newcomers who will overwhelm in numbers. And too small in military might to fend off an angry regime bent on vengeance (not necessarily taking back lost lands but exacting a price for support of the seceders).
The likely choice is independence. Will it take the form of a new, singular but geographically-divided country or will it be two large countries on each coast, or will it be pockets of little states?
The only state I see seceding mostly as a whole is Hawaii. Regime military presence may make short shrift of this attempt though it is far away from the mainland.
The other possible seceders will be the large cities and perhaps regions on the west coast, though entire states is unlikely. The best I can see is Oregon and Washington west of the Cascades seceding and at least the southern half of California.
The rest of the country, going east, is likely to stay regimist though there may be pockets of resistant (easily quashed) in large cities and perhaps some states (Utah).
It will not be until the eastern seaboard that secession will pick up again, this time from Virginia north to New England. It'll likely be big cities toward the south and whole states towards the north and New England.
The question next is, independence or who to join? There certainly won't be powerful friends to rely on for protection, and might will have to be whatever military assets and loyal military personnel remain. Many regions and states are certainly large enough to exist as independent economic entities, but perhaps not without might against an angry regime. Canada is nearby (too near) and culturally and linguistically similar but too small. Too small in population to absorb potential newcomers who will overwhelm in numbers. And too small in military might to fend off an angry regime bent on vengeance (not necessarily taking back lost lands but exacting a price for support of the seceders).
The likely choice is independence. Will it take the form of a new, singular but geographically-divided country or will it be two large countries on each coast, or will it be pockets of little states?
A small silver lining that Canada is hoping for?
Just over a year ago, Canada stepped onto a landmine by arresting the CFO of a Chinese technology company at the behest of U.S. authorities. Certain clueless government leaders claimed rule of law and kept harping on this point. In the year since, the resulting chill in relations with Chin has costed Canada over $4 billion in exports to China and a lot of distress in the agricultural sector (which is o.k. as the farmers by and large do not elect the ruling party). It has also resulted in two persons being arrested and held by Chinese authorities.
No quick and tidy resolution caught between two powers. Extradition of the Chinese national to the U.S. will in all likelihood mean a lifetime between Chinese prison bars for the two Canadian persons. No friends.
While the case runs its way through the courts (the government minister in charge had the option to stop extradition proceedings), I am sure senior government are hoping a coup or something that renders the U.S. as a non-"rule of law" country is the escape card.
No quick and tidy resolution caught between two powers. Extradition of the Chinese national to the U.S. will in all likelihood mean a lifetime between Chinese prison bars for the two Canadian persons. No friends.
While the case runs its way through the courts (the government minister in charge had the option to stop extradition proceedings), I am sure senior government are hoping a coup or something that renders the U.S. as a non-"rule of law" country is the escape card.
Trump, the new Caesar?
Those who study history may know that Caesar was a man. Gaius Julius Caesar was a Senator of the Roman Republic. The path to the Roman Senate lay in getting elected, with the first step being a Questor. The next, and optional, step was to be elected at Aedile, and then Praetor. Members of Senate elected a Conul or two to run the republic. At some point, Caesar was elected and managed to usurp power, founding the Roman Empire.
After the eventual fall of the last vestiges of the Roman Empire in Constantinople, the Germans fancied themselves as successors to Rome (despite, or because, their Gothic kin having sacked Rome) and founded the Holy Roman Empire. The word Caesar had long become synonymous with emperor so the Germans called their emperor Caesar in German, Kaiser an the Austrians would do the same, even though both had a perfectly-good latin term, imperator.
Will english-speaking humanity (if it survives that long) in decades and centuries to come, call the ruler of the Americn empire (of whatever remains of it) "Trump"?
After the eventual fall of the last vestiges of the Roman Empire in Constantinople, the Germans fancied themselves as successors to Rome (despite, or because, their Gothic kin having sacked Rome) and founded the Holy Roman Empire. The word Caesar had long become synonymous with emperor so the Germans called their emperor Caesar in German, Kaiser an the Austrians would do the same, even though both had a perfectly-good latin term, imperator.
Will english-speaking humanity (if it survives that long) in decades and centuries to come, call the ruler of the Americn empire (of whatever remains of it) "Trump"?
Fast forward 3 years to 2020
I've been sitting on this blog for 3 years, not sure what I would say. Now that developments have taken the turns they have, my personal feeling is that this blog is becoming more relevant.
Right now, I see the probability of a coup to be very high, at least 50%. As speculated by many, this is likely to come after the results of the elections in November.
The only hope is that there are enough of who I call the "constitutionalists" with access to power, armed or otherwise, to protect and defend what is supposed to be the sacred and iconic document. I'm not currently convinced that there are enough.
More thoughts as I develop them.
Right now, I see the probability of a coup to be very high, at least 50%. As speculated by many, this is likely to come after the results of the elections in November.
The only hope is that there are enough of who I call the "constitutionalists" with access to power, armed or otherwise, to protect and defend what is supposed to be the sacred and iconic document. I'm not currently convinced that there are enough.
More thoughts as I develop them.
Introduction
Note: This introduction below reflects thoughts from 2 years ago (early August 2018 to be more precise). Time to start actively publishing and putting down my thoughts now.
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I thought about writing this blog a fewmonths years ago, after thinking back to some speculative hypotheses I made a few years ago. Back in late 2013, I was in France talking to a well-educated Indo-American (think Bobby Jindal or Nikki Haley) and I mentioned that I could see the British leaving the E.U. and that a civil war in the U.S. was a distant possibility. Nidhi - an Ivy League-educated lawyer - opined that the British were too open to ideas and weren't insular. Less than 3 5 years on, I was definitely and absolutely proven right. On the second point, she didn't see that as possible.
While I hope I am proven wrong about my second American civil war hypothesis, I think the possibility has grown immensely.
Back in 2013, I thought a civil war would result in something minor spinning out of control, such as the Cliven Bundy incident and how the federal government would react to it. It'd start out small but will spin out of control as various factions - the federal government, NRA, conservatives, etc. start throwing in their influence.
Far from my mind at the time was political polarisation in the U.S. Congress, and further from my mind Donald Trump.
Fast forward to early 2017. I speculated how the Trump term of office will end
Currently, it seems to be chaos. Or what appears to be chaos hiding fundamental changes.
<==
I stopped a this point, unsure of and daunted by how to approach a very complicated and multi-faceted topic. Forecasting the future is difficult. Who knew in late 1930s what the outcome would be in 1940 let alone 1945? Major outcomes could occur due to a single event. One can only write about possible scenarios, what their causes and effects are, and perhaps the probability.
I have decided just to write short essays which may or may not be edited for updates.
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I thought about writing this blog a few
While I hope I am proven wrong about my second American civil war hypothesis, I think the possibility has grown immensely.
Back in 2013, I thought a civil war would result in something minor spinning out of control, such as the Cliven Bundy incident and how the federal government would react to it. It'd start out small but will spin out of control as various factions - the federal government, NRA, conservatives, etc. start throwing in their influence.
Far from my mind at the time was political polarisation in the U.S. Congress, and further from my mind Donald Trump.
Fast forward to early 2017. I speculated how the Trump term of office will end
Martial
law
coup
d’etat
civil
war
impeachment
or just simple chaos for
the next ~ 4 years
Currently, it seems to be chaos. Or what appears to be chaos hiding fundamental changes.
<==
I stopped a this point, unsure of and daunted by how to approach a very complicated and multi-faceted topic. Forecasting the future is difficult. Who knew in late 1930s what the outcome would be in 1940 let alone 1945? Major outcomes could occur due to a single event. One can only write about possible scenarios, what their causes and effects are, and perhaps the probability.
I have decided just to write short essays which may or may not be edited for updates.
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