What are the consequences for Canada?

Updated 9 February 2020

A two part series.  I will write one for the other neighboring country Mexico.

A civil war in the U.S. is highly undesirable for Canada in the short term as it will likely cause an immediate and deep recession due to dominant economic ties.  A long-term benefit is that it will finally make businesses and government realise that a diversity in customers is highly desirable not to mention the main competitor in turmoil. 

Another long term benefit is the demise of the free trade agreement, and the possibility that whatever results from a break up will be equitable trade with smaller remnants of the U.S. as the entities will be smaller and less able to impose less favorable terms.


Refugees
A messy violent war is likely to result in a wave of refugees.  Most will likely stay within what it currently the U.S. - moving to areas that are friendly to them.  A certain number could find that the easiest refuge are neighboring countries, who could end up swamped and not able to deal with migrants that could easily outnumber.their current populations such as the case of Canada which population is around 1/10th of the U.S.
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Canada's ability to absorb larger numbers will be severely tested. The country's immigration policy which has been a gross intake of approximately 1% of the existing population annually for many years has resulted in some resources, capacity and plans already in place to absorb even more newcomers.

In addition, a good number of refugees could well be nominal Canadians who have settled in the U.S. for decades (it was said decades ago, 1/2 million if not more) and have children and even grandchildren who are Canadian citizens or are a least eligible for citizenship.  There will be some familial connections and the assistance rendered will make absorption easier.

Housing
With a reported pre-existing housing shortage, and an inhospitable winter climate, what will make it difficult and challenging is physically housing large numbers, let alone the financial cost, at least in the short term. If financers can be found, an immediate housing boom in residential construction is likely.  Longer term, there will be benefits as it could be a huge increase in human capital.

Health Care Costs
In the very long term, continued turmoil and breakdown of the U.S. economy may make one costly item of governmental budgets, health care, cheaper.  As a medical education in Canada is fully transferable to the U.S. (and other English-speaking countries) and as such, Canada has to pay medical staff quite a substantial amount to be competitive and keep medical staff from leaving. An economy in turmoil and unable to pay medical fees may well drive down medical costs.

Other professional wage rates , especially for those who can freely work, may also decline.

All too close for me.