Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Secession

If the U.S. does fall apart as a result of a disputed election, secession of some states and regions within states is a possibility.

The only state I see seceding mostly as a whole is Hawaii.  Regime military presence may make short shrift of this attempt though it is far away from the mainland.

The other possible seceders will be the large cities and perhaps regions on the west coast, though entire states is unlikely.  The best I can see is Oregon and Washington west of the Cascades seceding and at least the southern half of California.

The rest of the country, going east, is likely to stay regimist though there may be pockets of resistant (easily quashed) in large cities and perhaps some states (Utah).

It will not be until the eastern seaboard that secession will pick up again, this time from Virginia north to New England.  It'll likely be big cities toward the south and whole states towards the north and New England.

The question next is, independence or who to join?  There certainly won't be powerful friends to rely on for protection, and might will have to be whatever military assets and loyal military personnel remain.  Many regions and states are certainly large enough to exist as independent economic entities, but perhaps not without might against an angry regime.  Canada is nearby (too near) and culturally and linguistically similar but too small.  Too small in population to absorb potential newcomers who will overwhelm in numbers. And too small in military might to fend off an angry regime bent on vengeance (not necessarily taking back lost lands but exacting a price for support of the seceders).

The likely choice is independence.  Will it take the form of a new, singular but geographically-divided country or will it be two large countries on each coast, or will it be pockets of little states?

No comments:

Post a Comment