No, I don't think Bernie Sanders would ever think of a dictatorship with him or his movement being at the helm of it. I take it at his self-described word that he is a democratic socialist and will perform his constitutional duties faithfully. Where I see the path to dictatorship with him as a catalyst comes in at least two ways:
Currently, we have Sen Sanders seemingly having the lead and momentum after caucii and a primary in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. As I write, the South Carolina primary will be held late in week with "Super Tuesday" - 14 states having primary selections - a week later.
Assuming Sen. Sanders wins a large number of delegates (a quarter of that required to win) to the Democratic convention, his momentum to winning the presidential nomination may be unstoppable.
However, he may not win enough to win on the first round of voting. In that case, a brokered convention where delegates are horse traded with the 700 or so super delegates (Democratic party grandees) are released to vote in the second round, may be required for a presidential nominee to win. Nominees from a brokered convention, usually divisive, have had a very poor record in the actual election.
The Rachel Bitcofer theory that modern U.S. elections are worn on voter turn out, and not winning over independent voters, could come strongly into play. In 2016 after Hilary Clinton won the nomination in a contest with Sen. Sanders with votes of super delegates a large number of Sanders supporters reportedly either stayed home, ended up voting from Trump (they perceived he would stand up for the little person) or voted for minor candidates (e.g.,, Green Party). If Sen. Sanders does win the largest number of delegates, but not enough to secure the nomination on the 1st round of voting, the establishment Democrats may broker a candidate that they deem more mainstream and electable, and a representative for their corporate interest. I would expect that the Bitcofer turnout theory will strongly present and the Democrats will lose the election through lower turnout.
In the even Sanders does win the nomination, I can envision some supporters of establishment Democrats, particularly the very wealthy, throwing their support to Trump to protect their interest. This would be a close parallel to the industrialist of Weimar Germany supporting Hitler as a pro-business leader. A resulting narrow victory could result in a disputed election which may end up with Trump seizing power with the support of the Senate Republicans.
Even if Sen. Sanders were to win the election, it is not inconceivable that an overt coup, let by industrialists and Trumpist Republicans to protect their interests may happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment