Saturday, February 8, 2020

If not Civil War, A Peaceful Secession?

There is always the scenario of a peaceful secession of states and regions.  My thinking is that such a secession may come from another 2 or more presidential elections where a significant majority of votes are cast for a Democratic candidate while Trump or a successor wins a majority of Electoral College votes.  It is also not unlikely that, given the partisan nature of the electorate, the GOP will continue to hold a majority in the Senate while Democrats hold a majority in the House of Representatives.

Coupled with the likelihood that the federal judiciary will continue to be staffed with partisan appointees, a majority of the electorate in Democrat leaning states will find that continuous stream of  federal judicial rulings against policies and laws that they would have had an excellent chance of winning with a more-neutral judiciary has reached an intolerable point.  States may start a process of secession by issuing ultimatums after winning super majorities in state elections,  How actual secession takes place, whether it will be a group of states forming a new nation, or something more fragmented, and whether and how the regime may become more apparent if the preceding events occur.

There may be counter-secessionists within states, such as the eastern regions of Washington and Oregon deciding that it wants to remain with the regime which could spark local conflict (which can easily spin out of control and spread).

The 2020 electoral map in the link below will provide an idea of the likely fault lines.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/07/election-2020-new-electoral-map-110496

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